January 21, 2021 – John Watson
As we leave 2020 behind and transition to the new semester and new year, what’s the latest prognosis for developments in digital learning?
Here’s the summary as we see it: the evidence continues to emerge that the post-pandemic landscape will be marked by two seemingly contradictory elements:
- An increase in permanent online and hybrid learning options for students, and
- Little long-term change in most physical schools, for most students.
Let’s look at each of these a bit more deeply.
An increase in permanent online and hybrid learning options for students
My Google news alert has at least one article about a district starting or expanding an online school just about every day, and often more than one such article. As one example (from Dec. 20), Botetourt schools setting virtual learning academy foundation, reports that:
COVID-19 wreaked havoc on Botetourt County schools’ way of doing things, but the distance learning that it enforced also opened a new niche in the division: a virtual learning academy…School officials are in the early stages of developing a perennial online school that would begin in fall 2021.
This quote captures much of what we have heard in other districts:
COVID, while it is a bad thing, has given us this silver lining, in that we have to now force ourselves to be flexible enough to pivot into a virtual program,’ board member Tim Davidick, who represents the Valley District, said during the board’s November meeting.
That article goes on to mention that a neighboring district, also in Virginia, started an online school that it intends to continue post-pandemic.
We envision some bumps in the road for many of these school districts in school year 2021-22 and beyond. One reason why: many of these articles, and some conversations that we have had with districts, suggest that district leaders haven’t fully thought through whether the demand from students and families is more for hybrid schools (combining online and onsite) than for fully virtual. Our research over nearly two decades shows that only 1-2% of students and families choose fully virtual options. Most hybrid schools are much newer, such that we don’t have good data on them, but good reasons exist to think they may attract a larger number of students. Districts that believe they should build fully online may have to re-think…